important information for choosing

important information for choosing the best forecasting method for a service or product. Theyalso guide managers in selecting the best values for the parameters needed for the method: n for themoving average method, the weights for the weighted moving average method, a for the exponential smoothing method, and when regression data begins for the trend projection with regression method.The criteria to use in making forecast method and parameter choices include (1) minimizing bias (CFE);(2) minimizing MAPE, MAD, or MSE; (3) maximizing r2 for trend projections using regression; (4) using a holdout sample analysis; (5) using a tracking signal; (6) meeting managerial expectations of changes in the components of demand; and (7) minimizing the forecast errors in recent periods. The first three criteria relate to statistical measures based on historical performance, the fourth is a test under realistic conditions, the fifth evaluates forecast performance and the potential need to change the method, the sixth reflects expectations of the future that may not be rooted in the past, and the seventh is a way to use whatever method seems to be working best at the time a forecast must be made