Under the new pattern of comprehens

Under the new pattern of comprehensive opening, it is urgent to clarify the mechanism of RMB exchange rate changes and fluctuations on two-way FDI. In this paper, the RMB exchange rate, FDI and OFDI are brought into a unified theoretical analysis framework. from the dual perspectives of exchange rate level changes and exchange rate fluctuation risks, considering the time variance and risk transfer effect among variables, the ternary GAＲCH and BEKK time series models are used to study the dynamic relationship among RMB exchange rate, FDI and OFDI and the interaction mechanism of fluctuation risks. It is found that the appreciation of RMB exchange rate will promote the growth of OFDI, but the exchange rate change has no significant impact on FDI; The increase of RMB exchange rate fluctuation risk can significantly promote FDI and inhibit OFDI. Investigating the fluctuation transmission mechanism of three variables, it is found that historical RMB exchange rate fluctuations have short-term promotion and long-term inhibition transmission effects on current FDI fluctuations, while historical RMB exchange rate fluctuations have significant long-term and short-term inhibition transmission effects on current OFDI fluctuations. This study shows that in the new stage of promoting two-way opening-up, we should pay more attention to using the interval band mechanism of RMB exchange rate appreciation and depreciation, promote the benign coordinated development of FDI and OFDI, and optimize the two-way international investment strategy.