Sanding of dolomite is a special geological phenomenon. Sanded dolomite is characterized by loose and broken rock mass structure and strength deterioration. In the process of tunnel excavation, it is often faced with problems such as difficult hole formation, poor forming quality and collapse. Water inrush and sand gushing are also easy to occur in the water-rich tunnel section, which seriously hinders the normal development of engineering construction and threatens the safety of tunnel construction and operation. In this paper, based on Xiaopu tunnel in Yuxi section of water diversion project in central Yunnan, through on-the-spot geological investigation and physical and mechanical test data analysis, and based on Mohr-Coulomb criterion, the critical thickness prediction formula of water inrush and sand inrush disaster in water-rich sandy dolomite tunnel is derived. The FLAC3D numerical analysis software is used to simulate the construction process of sandy dolomite tunnel, and the influence of engineering geological conditions, changes of mechanical parameters of strongly sandy dolomite and strongly sandy dolomite rock mass on the critical thickness of outburst prevention structure, the maximum extrusion displacement of the face and the water inflow of the tunnel is analyzed. Based on the evolution law of critical thickness of outburst prevention structure, the disaster prediction model is built, and the impending disaster index is determined by taking the maximum extrusion displacement of the face and the water inflow growth rate as the discrimination basis. Through practical engineering, the adaptability and feasibility of prediction model and tunnel water gushing growth rate impending disaster index are tested, which provides the basis for reasonable prediction of disaster occurrence and prevention. The main achievements of this paper are as follows: (1) Based on the investigation of actual engineering geological conditions, the analysis of the rock structure and material structure of sandy dolomite, it is considered that the rock structure and material structure of sandy dolomite provide conditions for the infiltration of surface water and the storage of groundwater, and the severely sandy dolomite under the condition of strong water-rich and high water head is the main disaster source of water inrush and sand gushing in tunnels. (2) According to the research, the failure modes of sudden outburst instability of sandy dolomite tunnel can be divided into sliding type and shearing type. The main internal cause of outburst disaster in the cave is the lack of anti-sliding ability of severely sanded dolomite as filling medium or the lack of strength of strongly sanded dolomite as outburst prevention structure. The main external causes of outburst disaster in water-rich sandy dolomite tunnel are the decrease of rock integrity, strength deterioration, change of seepage field and insufficient thickness of outburst prevention structure caused by excavation disturbance. (3) According to the research, the slope failure mode of outburst prevention rock mass in the sandy Baiyun cave section is the whole shear failure, and the geological model is constructed by taking strongly sandy dolomite as outburst prevention rock mass and water-rich severely sandy dolomite as outburst body. The critical thickness of tunnel outburst prevention rock mass disaster is related to the buried depth, water head, inclination angle of rock stratum interface, internal friction angle and cohesion of surrounding rock. Based on Mohr-Coulomb criterion, the prediction formula of critical thickness of outburst prevention structure in water-rich sandy dolomite tunnel is derived: L_c=D/(2tanφ_r )(1-√(K/(K+Ptanφ_r )))。 (4) The numerical simulation study shows that the critical thickness of outburst prevention structure, the maximum extrusion displacement of the face and the water inflow are positively correlated with the tunnel head, and the dip angle of the interface with rock strata first decreases and then increases, while the change of the tunnel buried depth has little influence on the simulation results. The internal friction angle and cohesion of strongly sandy dolomite are negatively correlated with critical thickness of outburst prevention structure, maximum extrusion displacement of face and water inflow, and the change of elastic modulus of strongly sandy dolomite has little influence on simulation results. The changes of internal friction angle, cohesion and elastic modulus parameters of severely sandy dolomite have little influence on the simulation results. (5) A method of judging abrupt inflection point based on curvature value of parametric curve is proposed. According to the evolution law of catastrophic critical thickness, the prediction model of water inrush and sand gushing in water-rich sandy dolomite tunnel under the comprehensive influence of many factors is fitted: L _ C = [0.0162h] _ W-0.0001θ 2-0.0116θ-0.1284φ _ r-1.0748C _ r+4.7795. Taking the maximum extrusion displacement and the water inflow growth rate of the working face as the disaster information sources, the disaster critical values are determined to be 0.22 and 0.18 respectively. (6) Based on Xiaopu Tunnel in Yuxi section of Central Yunnan Water Diversion Project, the adaptability of three catastrophe prediction formulas and critical catastrophe index of water inflow growth rate is analyzed. The prediction results of three prediction formulas for YX06+595.2 working face are 1.97m, 1.62m and 2.80m respectively. The results show that the calculation results of the theoretical prediction formula of overall shear failure based on Mohr-Coulomb criterion are small, and the fitting formula of numerical analysis is in good agreement with the engineering practice, which has certain reference value. Suggestions and measures to prevent water inrush and sand gushing in the tunnel during construction are given. Key words: Central Yunnan Water Diversion Project; Sand dolomite; Catastrophic mechanism; Critical catastrophic thickness; Catastrophe prediction formula
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