金融领域的预测问题超出了模型未知参数(如预期参数)的估计范围。回报). This is because such a model would have to include parameters governing the market participants' propensity to change their opinions on the validity of that model. This leads to a well--known circular situation characteristic of financial markets, where participants collectively create the 未来 they wish to estimate. In this paper, we introduce a framework for organizing multiple expectation models and study the conditions under which they are adopted by a majority of market participants. △ Less