The new portfolio includes five stocks from Apple, Microsoft, IBM, JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, with an initial position of $100,000 each. Its adjusted price is based on the unadjusted price divided by CFACPR (cumulative factor for adjusted prices). The value at risk is also calculated from the daily value change of the portfolio and is selected for 2008, which contains 253 trading days. Thus, at a 99 per cent confidence level, the estimated 10-day VaR is only more than 1 per cent likely, equivalent to 2.53 days in 2008. However, based on the VaR calculations under normal and reverse tests, figure 3.1 shows. As well as the violations summarized in Table 3.1, the actual loss of the number of days above the VaR estimate is well over 2.53.
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