Economists have long been intrigued

长期以来，经济学家一直对经验证据感兴趣，这些经验证据表明，油价震荡<br>可能与宏观经济表现密切相关。这种兴趣可以追溯到1970年代。<br>1970年代是对进口石油的依赖日益增长，<br>全球石油市场受到前所未有的破坏以及美国宏观经济表现不佳的时期。因此，很<br>自然地怀疑石油价格与美国宏观经济总量之间存在因果关系。从那时<br>起，大量工作积累起来，据称是建立在理论<br>基础上的这种联系，并为它的支持提供经验证据。我们不会尝试全面<br>这些文献的综述，而是对我们认为是这场辩论中的关键问题以及过去30年中获得的见解进行了特质的综合。

Economists have long been intrigued by empirical evidence that suggests that oil price shocks<br>may be closely related to macroeconomic performance. This interest dates back to the 1970s.<br>The 1970s were a period of growing dependence on imported oil, unprecedented disruptions in<br>the global oil market and poor macroeconomic performance in the United States. Thus, it was<br>natural to suspect a causal relationship from oil prices to U.S. macroeconomic aggregates. Since<br>then a large body of work has accumulated that purports to establish this link on theoretical<br>grounds and to provide empirical evidence in its support. We do not attempt a comprehensive<br>survey of this literature, but rather provide an idiosyncratic synthesis of what we view as the key issues in this debate and the insights gained over the last 30 years.

长期以来，经济学家一直对石油价格震荡的经验证据感兴趣<br>可能与宏观经济表现密切相关。这种兴趣可以追溯到20世纪70年代。<br>20世纪70年代是一个对进口石油日益依赖的时期<br>全球石油市场和美国宏观经济表现不佳。因此，它是<br>自然会怀疑油价与美国宏观经济总量之间存在因果关系。因为<br>然后大量的工作积累起来，目的是在理论上建立这种联系<br>并提供实证证据支持。我们不尝试全面<br>对这些文献的调查，但提供了一个我们认为是本次辩论的关键问题和过去30年来获得的见解的特殊综合。