PROBABILISTIC ASSESSMENT OF "NORD P

PROBABILISTIC ASSESSMENT OF "NORD PAS-DE-CALAIS" FIRE SCENARIOS [5] In a previous contract, the frequency of a severe fire on the Nord Pas-de-Calais was determined as 3.8 × 10–3 /year for the machinery space. Further work was done to determine the consequences of several fires covering a wide range of possible scenarios. The current project has focused on the mitigating factors without which most fires would eventually become severe. A revised initiating frequency for fires has been determined, and new information about the ferry has been taken into account. Event tree analysis has been used to obtain frequencies for various fire scenarios in the separator room, generator room and engine room. These results have then been used to calculate frequencies for the specific scenarios featured in the previous work. The final results showed that, in particular, the frequency of a fire in the separator room in ventilation limited conditions was found to be 4.6 × 10–4/year. A fire occurring with all fire doors and ventilation dampers open in the whole machinery space, leading to a ceiling temperature of 400°C after 2½ hours, would have a frequency of only 8.0 × 10–9/year.