This paper focuses on the path sele

【摘要】：针对突发事件和次生灾害背景下救援人员路径选择问题,考虑救援人员在应急物流路径选择过程中的有限理性和模仿学习行为; 将累积前景理论（CPT）与进化博弈论相结合；构建有限理性救援者多策略集的演化博弈模型；并通过一个算例分析了路径选择的动态演化过程和参数的敏感性分析，验证了模型的合理性。结果表明，具有有限理性的救援者多策略集演化博弈模型能够根据路网路网状况和救援车辆的通行数量，获得最优路径（稳定策略）。

This paper focuses on the path selection problem of rescuers under the background of emergencies and secondary disasters,considers the bounded rationality and imitative learning behavior of rescuers in the process of emergency logistics path selection; combines cumulative prospect theory (CPT) with evolutionary game theory; and constructs an evolutionary game model of limited rational rescuers’ multi-strategy set; and verifies the rationality of the model through the analysis of an example showing the dynamic evolution process of path selection and sensitivity analysis of the parameters. The results show that the evolutionary game model of a multi-strategy set for rescuers with bounded rationality can obtain the optimal path (stability strategy) according to the road conditions and the number of rescue vehicles passing in the road network. Additionally, factors such as the type and level of secondary disasters, the time risks faced by rescuers, and the perception of road conditions have a greater impact on the path selection strategies of rescuers.<br>

重点研究了突发事件和次生灾害背景下救援人员的路径选择问题，考虑了救援人员在应急物流路径选择过程中的有限理性和模仿学习行为；将累积前景理论(CPT)与进化博弈论相结合；构建了有限理性救援者多策略集的进化博弈模型；并通过展示路径选择动态演化过程的实例分析和参数敏感性分析，验证了模型的合理性。结果表明，有限理性的救援者多策略集进化博弈模型可以根据道路状况和救援车辆在路网中的通行数量获得最优路径(稳定策略)。此外，次生灾害的类型和级别、救援人员面临的时间风险以及对路况的感知等因素对救援人员的路径选择策略有较大影响。