ABSTRACTThe fuzzy cognitive map method is adopted to construct the systematic mapping relationship between shipnavigational risk factors and safety level for assessing the effectiveness of ship navigation safety countermeasures. The proposed approach integrates fuzzy inference system and evidential reasoning to convert initialinput values of variables and obtain the strength of interconnections, respectively. Non-linear Hebbian learningalgorithm is employed to refine the model. The constructed model is then applied with an illustrative case studyassociated with the middle stream region of the Yangtze river, where the current safety situation and severalscenarios for improving navigational safety in the future are evaluated. The logicality and robustness constructedmodel and the assessing results are validated by applying sensitivity analysis. Through this research, it is foundthat the proposed method has the characteristics of high efficiency, lightweight and stability, which simulatesthe safety dynamics of the ship navigational system intuitively like the mode of natural thinking. This workprovides an alternative for the shipping safety decision maker to understand the navigation safety status andcontrol the evolving trend of it for a foreseeable period.